Wholesale at a Crossroads: How U.S. Cannabis Growth Is Rising—Unevenly

Here’s what the data says about U.S. cannabis wholesale growth: it’s expanding overall, but the trajectory is uneven—state by state, category by category—and heavily influenced by pricing cycles, retail build-outs, and capital conditions.

Wholesale pricing remains the clearest pulse check. Cannabis Benchmarks’ U.S. Spot Index shows 2025 prices oscillating in a relatively tight but downward-tilting band through the summer—roughly $1,135/lb in early August, easing to about $1,048/lb by late August. That pattern captures the industry’s current equilibrium: supply is ample, demand is growing but not uniformly, and pricing power is limited outside of premium or shortage pockets.

Market performance diverges sharply by state maturity. In long-mature Western markets, structural oversupply and intense competition continue to suppress wholesale recovery. California offers a telling snapshot: since peaking in 2021, legal sales have fallen roughly 30%, a backdrop that keeps wholesale prices and seller margins under pressure even as some counties buck the trend. Tax policy and competition from the illicit market add drag. By contrast, East Coast ramp-ups are pulling more wholesale volume through licensed channels. New York’s rapid retail expansion in 2025—hundreds of new stores projected and sales expected to top $1.5 billion—has begun to normalize the state’s supply chain and support steadier wholesale pull-through, even as retail pricing compresses with competition.

Trade-level datasets point to a market that is not “flat,” but rather cycling through localized peaks and troughs. LeafLink’s 2025 Wholesale Pricing Guide, drawing on transactions across 18 markets and nearly 400,000 SKUs, highlights both cross-market price dispersion and category stratification (flower vs. cartridges, concentrates, edibles/ingestibles, pre-rolls). In aggregate, the guide’s release notes underscore that pricing is still recalibrating post-compression, with some categories stabilizing faster than others. Headset’s state dashboards tell a similar story at retail: for example, Washington shows modest price deflation and year-over-year sales softness, reflecting a mature market where wholesale sellers face limited growth via price and must compete on product, brand, and sell-through velocity.

So is wholesale “growing, leveled off, or up and down?” The best characterization is “growing, but choppy.” On the one hand, national retail sales baselines that feed wholesale orders continue to rise. Whitney Economics projects U.S. legal retail sales of roughly $34–35 billion in 2025 (low-double-digit growth from 2024), with continued expansion through decade’s end. Longer-run forecasts from New Frontier Data and MJBiz indicate a $57–72 billion retail market by 2030 depending on legalization cadence—ample headroom for wholesale, provided suppliers can align with opening states and category shifts. On the other hand, wholesale sellers cannot rely on price increases to drive growth; the current environment rewards unit volume gains, SKU mix optimization, and operational efficiency rather than margin expansion via pricing.

Three structural forces explain the “up and down” feel on the ground:

Retail footprint timing. When a state adds dozens or hundreds of stores, wholesale order books surge; when build-outs slow or licenses cluster, orders fragment and pricing softens. New York’s 2025 acceleration exemplifies the first scenario; parts of the West illustrate the second.
Category mix changes. Pre-rolls, infused formats, and value-tier vapes often outpace whole-flower in sell-through, influencing what wholesalers can move at scale and at what price. LeafLink’s category analyses and trade-press syntheses document this shift, as do stable-to-rising wholesale prices in certain SKUs even when bulk flower softens.
Capital and credit conditions. With equity financing constrained and private lenders more selective, inventory turns and payables discipline matter more than ever. Wholesale prices that once reset quickly now linger as operators focus on cash conversion, and debt overhangs in parts of the sector weigh on aggressive purchasing.

What the near future likely holds

Incremental national growth, continued price discipline. Most credible baselines show retail (and thus wholesale) growing through 2025–2027, but wholesale price inflation is unlikely outside of constrained micro-markets. Expect continued spot-price volatility around a relatively flat trend line nationally, as tracked by Cannabis Benchmarks.
Geographic rebalancing. As New Jersey, New York, and other late-stage adopters scale, wholesale volume will tilt eastward. Western operators may stabilize via consolidation and capacity rationalization rather than price recoveries alone.
SKU and form-factor shifts. Infused pre-rolls, solventless concentrates, and differentiated vape hardware are likely to command steadier wholesale demand than undifferentiated bulk flower. Trade data from LeafLink indicates buyers increasingly use comparative pricing intelligence across markets to set orders and negotiate.
Parallel channels complicate demand planning. The rapid rise of hemp-derived intoxicating beverages and other non-dispensary products—now a billion-dollar-plus channel drawing attention from alcohol distributors—will continue to blur demand signals for THC consumption and wholesale planning in regulated markets, especially as states tighten or clarify rules.
Operational rigor > top-line hype. Employment benchmarks show that even as national revenue inches up, parts of the workforce and license counts are contracting—an indicator of ongoing efficiency drives and competitive shakeouts that will keep wholesale buyers cautious.

Bottom line: U.S. cannabis wholesale is growing, but the growth is uneven and quality-of-revenue matters more than quantity. In emerging East Coast markets, wholesalers can ride retail expansion; in mature Western markets, gains will come from mix, brand equity, and cost leadership rather than price. Across the map, sellers that treat pricing data as a daily input, align SKUs with local demand, and keep balance sheets tight will be best positioned for the choppy—but rising—tide ahead.